June 13, 2020

Bayesian updating

Bayesian updating involves:

  • Assigning credence levels to beliefs, rather than holding them as only true’ or false’
  • Changing your credences when you encounter new evidence by appropriately weighting your prior beliefs and the strength of the new evidence.

Formally this is done using Bayes’ Rule, but usually people try to develop calibrated intuitions as a more pragmatice way to incorporate Bayesian updating into real life.

Updated Jun, 14 2020

#Mental-models #Epistemics